Rick Hertzberg and I agree on three out of four things:
1. The Beck-Limbaugh purification of the Republican Party will continue apace.
Populist nihilism—increasingly the default position within the G.O.P., especially on national level—still has a lot of energy left in it. As the party’s core shrinks (a process that will continue even if its share of the vote increases relative to the Democratic share), the resentful right’s stranglehold will grow stronger.
2. The Republicans will gain seats in next year’s midterm election.
The party holding the White House always loses seats in a new President’s first midterm, the only exception being the special case of 2002, the year of Bush-Rove post-9/11 electoral terrorism.
3. The right, and much of the commentariat, will discover a cause-and-effect relationship between No. 1, above, and No. 2.
They’ll figure it this way: post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
Then we diverge. He offers:
4. President Obama will be reëlected.
He’ll be the safe choice. Having been elected on hope, change, and adventure, he’ll be reëlected on reassurance, stability, and … experience.
I think it’s more like:
4. If unemployment is below 10% nationally, Obama may be reelected, depending on opponent. If it’s below 8%, he will win in a landslide regardless of oponent.
It’s really as simple as that.
We’re back in agreement on the bonus Fifth Thing, which is presented more as a prayer:
5. The number of Americans who realize that more of our problems stem from structure (especially the Senate, and most especially the filibuster) than from politicians’ lack of moral fiber will reach the cusp of a tipping point.
Amen.
Lemkin 