Death Spiral

It occurs to me that:

  1. The GOP categorically cannot resist getting behind bad policy with economically destructive end results, especially if and when they also increase suffering in the interim. It’s like their catnip.
  2. The Democrat wants to crawl out from under insurance reform with “popular” sub-measures, the community rating being among the very most popular.
  3. It is widely accepted that forcing a community rating in the absence of the individual mandate will extinguish health insurance as a profitable concern in this or any country

So here’s the plan. Figure out a way to pass the community rating. Fuck yeah, health insurance reform! Nobody can be denied coverage, 4EVA!!!!

Then: Healthy people stay out of insurance pools until they are genuinely sick, the insurance companies soon enough find they cannot continue to make money at that, prices and premiums spasmodically but systematically rise. Lather, rinse, repeat for 5-10 years. And then: BOOM. The system finally collapses utterly. President Palin is forced to do, uh, somethin’ or ‘nuther, doncha know? About all that health stuff and whatnot?

The GOP will have ushered in single payer.

And, no, I’ve not gone around the bend. Various conservatives are already making the connection:

the country will face a choice: allow the numbers of uninsured to continue shooting up, or enroll more and more people directly in taxpayer-funded government insurance plans.

I say, if nothing else, Democrats should be doing whatever possible to accelerate the arrival of that day. Think of it as the reverse Grover Norquist. And, rest assured, given the rampant fucktardia emanating from DC Democrats over the last few days, I think they are, uh, going as fast as they possibly can on this plan.

Pass. The. Damned. Bill.

Today’s installment of What Paul Krugman Said:

A message to House Democrats: This is your moment of truth. You can do the right thing and pass the Senate health care bill. Or you can look for an easy way out, make excuses and fail the test of history.

Tuesday’s Republican victory in the Massachusetts special election means that Democrats can’t send a modified health care bill back to the Senate. That’s a shame because the bill that would have emerged from House-Senate negotiations would have been better than the bill the Senate has already passed. But the Senate bill is much, much better than nothing. And all that has to happen to make it law is for the House to pass the same bill, and send it to President Obama’s desk.

[…]

[S]ome Democrats want to just give up on the whole thing. That would be an act of utter political folly. It wouldn’t protect Democrats from charges that they voted for “socialist” health care – remember, both houses of Congress have already passed reform. All it would do is solidify the public perception of Democrats as hapless and ineffectual.

And, let me just add: this asinine idea that you can chop the bill up into component parts is both functionally impossible and utterly improbable. So: the GOP is suddenly going to agree to operate in the best interests of the public? Since when? Seriously, when was the last incident of the GOP acting as though it had any responsibility re: actually governing. Name it. I’d seriously like to know. You could offer them full revocation of all taxes, closure of the IRS, and immediate shuttering of 85% of all government offices outside military and interstate highways and they’d still say: Hells No. Even better, from their entirely predictable point of view: the chop-it-up approach then ties up all legislative action for MONTHS as you serially run the mini-bills out for failed vote after failed vote after failed vote. All of which, of course, end in giant collective failure and a total lack of action on the things people are hopping mad about: the banks, Wall Street reforms, and jobs initiatives. Which, not coincidentally, are precisely the issues the Democrat could utterly crucify the 41-vote GOP with for the next eight or so months, right up until the 2010 mid-terms.They are AGAINST all of those things. And will vote to prove it. Unfortunately, they won’t be given the chance.

What part of the months-long slow-roll of the “negotiations” that went on from August to December of last year have the Democrats suddenly forgotten? The GOP wanted no part of compromise or some mythical “centrist” option. They DO NOT WANT TO PASS HEALTH REFORM OF ANY KIND, no matter what its shape, size, composition, font, paper quality, or decorative binding may be. Repeat: THE GOP is FUNDAMENTALLY and COMPLETELY against ANY REFORM. Full fucking stop.

Democrats, you’ve got two choices:

  1. Pass the fucking thing. You ALREADY DID. Those votes counted, you know. Pass, fail or abandon, those votes will hang around your necks like so many albatrosses. Better to have a useful outcome to point to than, you know, more months of utterly feckless failures.
  2. Pass a substantial expansion of Medicare and Medicaid, with Medicare buy-in over, say 45 or 50, paid for by some version of the Cadillac Tax on the wealthy. You know, what Ezra said. This would represent a substantial step forward, and can, without a doubt, go through reconciliation and would be a major fucking achievement that could start the day the bill was signed and, more importantly, people would actually like.

That’s it. Those are your choices. Why this is so fucking hard to understand after the display across the last 10 or more years up there is well and truly beyond me.

Fuck this up and it’s over. Democrats will be functionally out of power in 2010, totally out in 2012; Obama recalled as little more than Carter2. I’d say the odds for this outcome are pretty much 80/20 in favor of exactly that happening. If only the Democrat had a powerful leader with charisma and a strong public following. Somebody like that could take charge of this cluster fuck, start giving legislative marching orders, and navigate the turbulent political waters. But that guy has Rahm fucking Emanuel whispering in his ear. Odds go to at least 85/15.

Merry Christmas.

I have enough faith in my fellow creatures in [the United States] to believe that when they have got over the delirium of the television, when they realize that their new homes that they have been put into are mortgaged to the hilt, when they realize that the moneylender has been elevated to the highest position in the land, when they realize that the refinements for which they should look are not there, that it is a vulgar society of which no decent person could be proud, when they realize all those things, when the years go by and they see the challenge of modern society not being met by the [Republicans] who can consolidate their political powers only on the basis of national mediocrity, who are unable to exploit the resources of their scientists because they are prevented by the greed of their capitalism from doing so, when they realize that the flower of our youth goes abroad today because they are not being given opportunities of using their skill and their knowledge properly at home, when they realize that all the tides of history are flowing in our direction, that we are not beaten, that we represent the future: then, when we say it and mean it, then we shall lead our people to where they deserve to be led!

Aneurin Bevan [lightly edited to contextualize], to the British Labour Party in 1959, following their general election defeat. Wow.

Re-conciliation

File under “Great Fucking Idea” from Ezra Klein:

Democrats could scrap the legislation and start over in the reconciliation process. But not to re-create the whole bill. If you go that route, you admit the whole thing seemed too opaque and complex and compromised. You also admit the limitations of the reconciliation process. So you make it real simple: Medicare buy-in between 50 and 65. Medicaid expands up to 200 percent of poverty with the federal government funding the whole of the expansion. Revenue comes from a surtax on the wealthy.

[…]

If health-care reform that preserves the private market is too complex and requires too many dirty deals with the existing industries, then cut both out. But get it done. Democrats have a couple of different options for passing health-care reform this year. But not passing health-care reform should not be seen as one of them.

And that’s it. Harry Reid walks out to the podium (with Nancy Pelosi maintaining a stately distance, naturally) and says: Fuck all y’all below the age of 50. Move to Massachusetts if you’re so fucking concerned with your fucking lack of health coverage. Go die in the streets and see if we fucking care. Rest assured: we do not fucking care. Not anymore. Coverage is for closers only. It’s the American Dream!

Instead, the Democrat will most likely commence to explaining why 50 votes can’t even be mustered even for this little change and the Democrat should sit quietly in a corner somewhere, execute only GOP-sourced initiatives discussed only using GOP talking-points and rhetorical frames, and otherwise do absolutely nothing between now and the 2010 midterms. Whatever you do, don’t rock the boat.

Don’t, under any circumstances, swing for the fences on bank and Wall Street reforms, jobs packages, and other such heady initiatives that force would the GOP to go along or (the vastly more likely possibility) just shut the whole government down for the next 8 months giving you, the Democrat, 24/7 talking points about how the GOP just loves them some Banksters and hates, hates, hates the common man and his/her ability to get a job. Whatever you do, don’t allow a Medicare buy-in such as the quoted paragraph suggests, because then you might have to repeatedly pummel your GOP opponents with why, exactly, are they so afraid of adding a little competition into the market. Why, exactly, they are so beholden to the concept of care costing 4-5x what it would cost in any other Western nation while delivering a fraction of the benefit with regard to outcome, as measured almost any way you want to look. Whatever you do, 59 vote majority, don’t start doing things. That way lies destruction.

…if America cannot grapple with its deep and real problems after electing a new president with two majorities, then America’s problems are too great for Americans to tackle.

And so one suspects that this is a profound moment in the now accelerating decline of this country. And one of the major parties is ecstatic about it.

Andrew Sullivan, seemingly channeling my underlying thoughts re: last post.

Plenty of reasons the US has slower internet speed on average, some that may rise to the level of: perfectly reasonable. But, I really wonder just how many of these sorts of charts the US has to rank in the average to mediocre range of before somebody, somewhere gives a damn? I mean, honestly. Just how pathetic (née bathetic) does the USA #1 chant have to get before we start doing something in this country again?

Understanding:Salary::

The Washington Post notes what others have: there’s an absolute shit-ton of money sloshing around in these final days of the MA US Senate special election:

Independent and party groups were set to spend nearly $5 million on television ads in the final weeks leading up to Tuesday’s special election between state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) and state Sen. Scott Brown ®.
[…]
there are 13 – yes, 13 – groups paying for ads in the race’s final days, with Democratic groups outspending Republican-aligned by more than $1 million.

Remarkable that the very same organizations that have a vested interest in selling these ad slots are the ones that also are the editorial gatekeepers on which polls get play. Thus, it’s far more interesting to run a poll showing it as being close than it is to show one that came out on the same day showing it not-so-close.

So which one is right? As a resident of MA, I can tell you that anyone with caller ID is simply not picking up the phone for any reason; anyone, that is, but rabid tea baggers, Scott Brown partisans, and older-skewing demographics who don’t know or don’t care who is calling. We currently get at least two or three automated polling calls A DAY. That’s before the supporter calls, the robo-calls, and the occasional shout out from the President of these United States. My totally unscientific man-on-the-ground assessment is to say this take is right in saying Brown’s numbers are getting inflated by this. Turnout is what will decide this thing, and even the polls favoring Brown tend to show that many of those very folks (presumably the independents) talking to pollsters aren’t actually sure they’ll a) vote and b) actually vote for Brown.

The media establishment would, of course, disavow that editorial and ad revenue divisions even know what floor the other one is on. But, of course, this phenomenon cuts two ways. It’s much more interesting to write stories if the race appears closer than it is. So, if two of ten polls say it’s close: then, BY GOD, it’s the closest race in the history of close races. Sell more papers, attract more viewers, sell more ads. A lot more ads. Direct collusion is, of course and as usual, utterly unnecessary.

Where Content is the King (of Late Night Comedy)

The last word on the late night dustup seems to have been ably provided by the Boston Globe’s Matthew Gilbert:

the late-night war of 2010 is about some of the more dated, lax, and artificial material that makes its way onto the small screen
[…]
This [creative] inertia is part of the reason the “Leno Experiment’’ failed so miserably. What we saw when Jay Leno essentially relocated his 11:35 p.m. “Tonight Show’’ to 10 p.m. was the ugly truth about late night. In the brighter light of prime time, we could see how weak and unimaginative so much of the networks’ post-news TV – and so much of Leno’s work in particular – has become. Leno’s big change for “The Jay Leno Show’’ at 10 was to get rid of his desk, that old icon of late-night TV.

Exactly. NBC craves a non-80 year old demographic for the 11:30 slot. Leno, though beating Letterman, was doing so with older people; even NBC can see where that’s headed. Conan was convinced to leave much of his originality at the altar of “moving to 11:30,” and though he reportedly refused further dumbing-down notes, he likewise failed to attract a new audience to what was largely the same exact tired old shit with a slightly (read: very slightly) edgier feel. All this move managed to do then was to alienate some of the old folks that used to bother to watch Leno. The desired demographic was off watching a stream of the Daily Show or something else entirely. For them, the Tonight Show would have to radically change to become anything approaching the appointment TV it was in the Johnny era. And, let’s be honest, even in the late Johnny era, the Tonight Show was no longer appointment TV. It was where Jimmy Stewart recited his poetry to the same, largely ancient-skewing demographic. There were simply fewer choices back then, so some younger folks ended up there by default and then got into the habit themselves.

Anyone and everyone tuning in for Leno at 10, though, likewise saw that this was just really piss-poor comfort food. As Gilbert notes, this is glaringly not worth watching in an environment with 300 other choices. And then you paint your entire week with that, and wonder after its failure, and blame (of all people) Conan.

Who is at fault, then? All of them. Conan needed to have a lot more of the spirit of his “old” show there to build a new audience for Tonight (7 months aint enough, but at least go down in a blaze of glory). Jay needed to, you know, come up with something. NBC needed to realize the old business model of safe, unobtrusive television doesn’t work in 2010, not even at 11:30. The fact that this is a network still worried about lead-ins tells you all you need to know. They seem to think people watch TV in a linear fashion and will continue to do so forever. Good luck with that.

Note to NBC: tear down anything resembling a schedule grid there at headquarters. You are a content company. Make the best content that you can. Get it to users in the most convenient way possible. Preferably by offering several ways to access it. Content, content, content. Everything else will take care of itself. Is this simple concept really so hard to understand?

And now, a very special episode of “Ow! My Balls!” ONLY on NBC.