Tag: 538

[Politico’s] Harris and VandeHei seem to lack very much curiosity for the world outside of the [Washington DC | Beltway] bubble. Harris claims it’s not worth his time to read 538, and VandeHei characterizes my work as “trying to use numbers to prove stuff”. Instead, what 538 is really about is providing a critical perspective, and scrutinizing claims on the basis of evidence (statistical or otherwise). In order to do that, you have to believe that there is some sort of truth outside the bubble – what would be called the “objective” world in a scientific or philosophical context. Politico, by contrast, sometimes seems to operate within a “post-truth” worldview. Some people think that is the very essence of savvy, modern journalism, but my bet is that journalism is headed in another direction – toward being more critical and empirical.

Nate Silver fairly destroys the Politico “brain trust.” Hope he’s right on that last point. I sorely doubt it.

Tangentially, I love that Harris, who is setting out to “revive long form journalism” on a Politico spinoff thinks the actual, hard facts and occasionally long-form journalism on 538 isn’t “worth his time.” Those two don’t just lack curiosity re: Outside the DC Bubble. As far as I can tell, they lack curiosity about actual information in all forms.

Mr. Boehner may face just as much risk as Mr. Obama, if not more. He has promised his more conservative members that he will extract significant concessions from the Democrats before he agrees to an increase in the debt limit. A White House that was willing to play hardball could put him to the test, and perhaps cause a substantial loss of face.

[…]

If Mr. Obama is a good poker player, he’ll know not to disregard Mr. Boehner’s earlier rhetoric, which gave away the vulnerability of his hand. And he’ll recognize Mr. Boehner’s more recent and more confident rhetoric for what it is: the oldest “tell” in the poker book, a show of strength betraying the ultimate weakness of his position.

Nate Silver
Mr. Obama is most decidedly not a good poker player.
Source: The New York Times

The Mortal Majority

jimray:

“…although the end-of-life use of Medicare is a government problem that violates almost every philosophy [Republicans] espouse about the proper role of government—public sector over private; easily exploited by, rather than protected from, trial lawyers; a moral hazard, consequence-free billing system as opposed to rational, need-based spending; a program with rising outlays as opposed to slow or zero growth outlays—Medicare is instead the very program they are rallying behind. And why? For votes—specifically the votes of those angry, mostly-white seniors upon whom they are betting their electoral fortunes in 2010 and beyond. In short, the GOP has now become so wedded to its dying, white majority that it is willing to sacrifice not only good public policy and smart long-term budgeting, but its very own core principles.”

— Tom Schaller over at FiveThirtyEight on the Republican party’s identity crisis.

All I have to say to this is: absolutely goddamned right. And, worst of all, they seem to think this is a winning strategy going forward. And it may just appear to be so (briefly) come 2010. Bad bad bad for the country all the way around. Policy matters not, it’s simply a movement based on pure fear, uncertainty, and doubt. An economic rebound will help, but only somewhat. Until we’re largely through this demographic shift, I suspect the country will only become more and more ungovernable. Something has got to give.