The Medicare Trustees put the projected shortfall at 0.79 percent of payroll, which is approximately 0.27 percent of GDP over the program’s 75-year planning horizon. By comparison, the increase in annual spending on the military between 2000 and 2011 was more than 1.6 percentage points of GDP. This increase in spending did not cause serious harm to the economy, therefore increased spending of one-fifth this size will presumably not be a major problem.
Tag: cepr
Annals of the Memory Hole: Anyone Remember that Crazy Housing Bubble?
Tom Coburn: Any honest view of our debt, deficits, size of government and demographic challenges shows we must make major changes if we are going to pass on the American way of life to our children. Each week seems to bring new warning signs: slower-than-expected growth (already as much as 25 to 33 percent every year, some estimate), higher-than-expected unemployment numbers.
Dean Baker: Actually the current period of high unemployment and slow growth has nothing to do with the budget deficit. It is the result of the collapse of the $8 trillion housing bubble. Unfortunately, Federal Reserve Board chairs Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and other policymakers overlooked this enormous bubble as it was growing. Apparently, Mr. Coburn has not noticed the bubble even now that its collapse has wrecked the economy. […] the housing bubble was [also] probably the most predictable economic crisis in history. Unfortunately, almost no one in a policy position was able to predict it. Contrary to Mr. Coburn’s assertion at the beginning of his [article quoted above], any honest view of the debt, deficits, size of government and demographic challenges shows that we have to fix our health care system. If per person health care expenditures were comparable to what they are in Germany, Canada, or any other wealthy country with a longer life expectancy than the United States we would be looking at budget surpluses, not deficits.
2012
For the fifth week in a row new unemployment insurance (UI) claims came in over 400,000. The number for last week was 434,000, bring the 4-week moving average to 436,750, the highest it has been since November.